An analysis I posted on the forums. Something that is very interesting, I think. Even allowing for margins of error and rounding errors, it appears that AT LEAST 60% (and likely closer to 70 to 75%) of the birther movement is concentrated among white Southerners, who make up only 27% of the US population.
Let me make that clearer. The other 73% of the US population only accounts for AT MOST 40% of the birther movement.
Or another way: Some 23% of the US population is either "unsure" or "don't believe" that Obama is a natural-born citizen. Of that 23%, white Southerners account for AT LEAST 15% (and more likely 17 to 18%). The whole rest of the nation, combined, only accounts for AT MOST 8%. Almost three times the amount of people have only about half as many birthers among them. (I.e., white Southerners are approximately five times more likely to be inclined to believe that Obama isn't a natural-born citizen, compared to everyone else in the nation.)
(Source: Census 2008 estimates)
Northeast: 19% of US population
Midwest: 23%
South: 36%
West: 22%
(Source: Census 2008 estimates)
Northeast: 82% white
Midwest: 86%
South: 77%
West: 82%
(Source: Research 2000 poll)
"unsure" plus "naysayers" = 23% nationwide
Northeast: 7% "unsure" plus "naysayers"
Midwest: 10%
South: 53% (Note: this is FOUR TIMES larger than the next-highest region)
West: 13%
Using the data provided, we have:
Northeast: (19% of US population) times (7% "unsure" plus "naysayers") = 1% of US population
Midwest: (23% of US population) times (10% "unsure" plus "naysayers") = 2% of US population
South: (36% of US population) times (53% "unsure" plus "naysayers") = 19% of US population
West: (22% of US population) times (13% "unsure" plus "naysayers) = 3% of US population
(Rounding error causes total to equal 25%)
Note right off the bat: approximately THREE QUARTERS of birthers reside in a region that makes up only 36% of the population. (Margin of error would assume that it ranges from 70% to 80% of the birther movement.)
If we assume that every single minority in the South is a member of the birther movement, we'd have:
Blacks in the South: (6.8% of US population) times (3% "unsure" plus "naysayers") = 0.2% of 16-18% birthers in the South
Other minorities in the South: (1.4% of US population) times (13% "unsure" plus "naysayers"--US Census data didn't mesh well with Research 2000 poll, so I took the worse number) = 0.2% of the 16-18% birthers in the South
There will be some discrepancies, because of the usual margins of error and rounding errors. But the data is clear. The birthers are disproportionately concentrated in the South. And even if every minority in the South was a birther, that'd still leave white Southerners as being 60 to 65% birther. Given the national trends for minorities, though, it looks closer to white Southerners as being about 75% birther.
So explain to us, please, how 27% of the population harboring some 70% of the birther movement is NOT significant...?
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| Birthers: Disproportionately among white Southerners |
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chubs
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Aug 23 @ 9:04AM
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personally, I'm more scare't of Al Cracker than Al Quieda 
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Mission_Impossible139
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Aug 23 @ 9:07AM
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The reason the center for conservatism/whackoism is so strong in the south is because the school systems have been terrible for such a long time. They don't believe in supporting schools.
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jcarolina
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Aug 23 @ 9:14AM
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I'm a white Southerner, and I believe the fact that Obama will not produce a birth certificate points to guilt more than anything. Why not simply show the thing, and put to rest the rumors?
Rumors make money...TMZ....Inside Edition.....so if our very leader is running with the media, where does that put the US?
Truth is....it doesn't matter. We're gonna get what we get regardless of who's giving it.
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dharmaseeker
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Aug 23 @ 9:30AM
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Carolina... what would you accept? All I have is the same thing Obama has. It's an entirely silly point anyway since he's already elected and this whole thing went around before the election. And if he was gone it would accomplish nothing.
Napaguy, I'm a white southerner too but so far from the right wing lugnuts who hate Obama I seem from a different planet. Not all of us are wacked out.
Wacky, maybe. But that's another story.
Mission, check out Texas schools. Guess who screwed those up. I cringe sending my kids to school but the only alternative is homeschool. I did that for a while and may again soon, depending on how things go in the next few weeks. Texas' school board is run by conservative Christians with several loudmouth radicals who want Bible classes and Creationism as part of the regular curriculum. Arg.
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Mission_Impossible139
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Aug 23 @ 9:43AM
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Obama will not produce a birth certificate points to guilt more than anything.
That's just a bold faced lie. He has produced a birth certificate. You are one of those from another planet dude. Get a life.
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CHARLIgurl1
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Aug 23 @ 11:21AM
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He has produced a birth certificate.
This is true!
Unfortunately it is not a certificate of live birth as we know it.
The original would have the doctors name, and the name of the hospital where he was born, the certificate on his website provides neither.
Also, back in the 60's the certificates were filled in by hand, written words in ink.
The certificate he has shown is a laser made copy, this is not the original.
I believe what the 'birthers' are asking for is the production of the original itself, which provides all the information of where and which doctor etc. It is this certificate he has refused to produce.
The Hawaiian Govener in an interview said that she has never been asked by Obama to have the original released, also a worker at the Births deaths and marriages in Hawaii, stated that there are 2 certificates on file for Obama, but she cannot give any information as to the contents of the other.. only Obama himself can ask for its release, which he never has.
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dizzydoll
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Aug 23 @ 12:02PM
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also a worker at the Births deaths and marriages in Hawaii, stated that there are 2 certificates on file for Obama, but she cannot give any information as to the contents of the other..
so what are you saying Charli, that we are allowed to have 2 birth certificates which contradict each other? That doesnt seem right to me.... 
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CHARLIgurl1
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Aug 23 @ 12:05PM
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Correction... Either hand written in ink or typed.
No Doll.. it doesnt sound right does it, but this is what the lady said who was interviewed at the Hawaiian BMD office.
Ill try and find the link for this interview.
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SweetNapaGuy
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Aug 23 @ 12:16PM
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Unfortunately it is not a certificate of live birth as we know it.
It is, however, the only certificate available from Hawaii. He ordered a replacement copy, with all the certifications, back in 2007.
The original would have the doctors name, and the name of the hospital where he was born, the certificate on his website provides neither.
Also, back in the 60's the certificates were filled in by hand, written words in ink.
The certificate he has shown is a laser made copy, this is not the original.
Ever moved? Notice how, when you move, things you had tend to disappear? (In my move back in July, being rushed, I ended up accidentally giving away some six document boxes of DVDs, books, and personal papers.) He ordered a replacement, the only form available.
I believe what the 'birthers' are asking for is the production of the original itself, which provides all the information of where and which doctor etc. It is this certificate he has refused to produce.
Which is safely protected within the records of the Hawaiian government. And if it WAS pulled out of the records, there would be an outcry that the original was replaced by a fake.
The Hawaiian Govener in an interview said that she has never been asked by Obama to have the original released,
That's nice, but the governor isn't at the beck and call of a private citizen. At the time that Obama ordered the birth certificate, he was just a very junior Senator. He went to Hawaii, filled out the appropriate request form, paid his fee, and received a notarized, stamped, and signed birth certificate.
also a worker at the Births deaths and marriages in Hawaii, stated that there are 2 certificates on file for Obama, but she cannot give any information as to the contents of the other.. only Obama himself can ask for its release, which he never has.
An "anonymous" person claims to be an expert on electronic documents, and is believed over people who are willing to give their name and "pedigree."
An "anonymous" person claims to be a worker within the department of vital statistics in Hawaii, and is believed over the director of the department who has actually been in the records.
Seems that, if you're going to believe people who refuse to put their reputation on the line, you might be jumping at any wisp of a chance to discredit Obama, no matter how absurd the source.
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1RockinDude
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Aug 23 @ 12:36PM
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Obama calls himself a '' World Citizen'' .  that remark did not help matters any.
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CHARLIgurl1
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Aug 23 @ 12:38PM
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you might be jumping at any wisp of a chance to discredit Obama, no matter how absurd the source.
Not at all. I have nothing personal against the man whatsoever.
I am simply saying that that there are too many unanswered questions which would all be cleared up if Obama just produced the original. or even a copy of it, which Hawaii would of course do for him.
He may of course have another agenda which is to keep the birther rumours going by not producing it.. for purposes unknown.
The fact remains that for as long as he does not produce this.. the birthers wont go away.
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SweetNapaGuy
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Aug 23 @ 12:44PM
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I am simply saying that that there are too many unanswered questions which would all be cleared up if Obama just produced the original. or even a copy of it, which Hawaii would of course do for him.
So by having someone remove the document from the Hawaiian records, he'd be opening himself up to claims that the original had been switched for a forgery.
Already, the Hawaiian official in charge of the records has been accused of being part of the conspiracy.
All the "unanswered questions" are simply the result of people unwilling to accepted the answers they've been given to the questions they don't want answers to in the first place. You want to see his birth certificate? It's on hundreds of websites by now. You want to verify it's true? There are lots of news articles out there quoting the Hawaiian official in charge of the vital records.
You don't like those answers? Well, like I said, maybe you didn't want to have your outrage assuaged?
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Kentuck
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Aug 23 @ 12:51PM
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You people need to get a life and an education. This all started by a white blond from Russia who settled in California and did not like the new tax laws. this lie was started by her and the dumb ass people who fail to check the source of their information. Which makes them not only a dumb ass but just plain and simple stupid.
For you people that still hung up on this lie--please submit your birth certificate for everyone here to see and read--the one that was written on brown poke paper and signed by the local horse doctor.
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legacy1
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Aug 23 @ 12:53PM
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You want to see his birth certificate? It's on hundreds of websites by now. You want to verify it's true?
Factcheck has touched it, verified it, scanned it for all to see... enjoy the link doubters!!!
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/born_in_the_usa.html
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SweetNapaGuy
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Aug 23 @ 1:03PM
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this lie was started by her and the dumb ass people who fail to check the source of their information.
Yup. Just goes to show you, be careful what prank you pull on April Fool's Day. (In response to the "John McCain isn't a natural-born citizen" campaign being run by his political opponents, some guy made the joking claim that Obama isn't.) If it gets on the internet, there will be people who take it seriously.
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1RockinDude
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Aug 23 @ 1:34PM
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I guess his original birth certificate is sealed away with his school records 
Or maybe they are under the bus with his ex mentor..Rev. Wright 
Really... people should be concerned about the job he is doing, or not doing.
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dizzydoll
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Aug 23 @ 1:37PM
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fact still remains, due to the tax structure... i doubt any country would have 2 contradictory birth certificates for the same person, let alone the Pres of the USA
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SweetNapaGuy
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Aug 23 @ 1:50PM
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people should be concerned about the job he is doing, or not doing.
Exactly. Stick to what's a REAL issue, rather than some cockamamie made-up issue like this. Sheesh. As if there weren't enough REAL issues to criticize him for (his being an inexperienced executive, for instance; there's a REASON most of our presidents come from the ranks of governors).
Instead, the real critics get lumped in with the hysterics and paranoids, and any meaningful communication is lost.
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southernlass
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Aug 23 @ 11:53PM
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Factcheck has touched it, verified it, scanned it for all to see... enjoy the link doubters!!!
Oh no, give me a break! Not factcheck! You haven't heard?
How Many of you know who owns factcheck?
You've all educated yourselves right? You know all you want to know about who you're voting for so you should know the answer to my question. And since you know that answer then you know the whole story of why not to believe anything factcheck has to say when it concerns Obama. I'll post a link in a few after you've answered.
Factcheck.org has a conflict of interest in covering Barack Obama because they are owned by The Annenberg Foundation
http://texasdarlin.wordpress.com/2008/08…
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/obama-ayers…
An education reform group co-founded by Bill Ayers in 1995 and chaired by Barack Obama from 1995 to 1999
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20081012145430AAW2vsY
Try again -- please... minus the factcheck thing 
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SweetNapaGuy
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Aug 24 @ 12:40AM
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And most birther websites sell merchandise on their website for inflated prices. (Eg., World News Daily) However, I don't ever see birther's questioning the motives of websites that support their opinions with gossamer-thin justifications...
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legacy1
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Aug 24 @ 1:05AM
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Try again -- please... minus the factcheck thing
It's funny as I have seen right wingers use the site when it supports their agenda but when it doesn't...well then...you have the obvious!
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observed50
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Aug 24 @ 1:19AM
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One of these days, I hope it can penetrate into the fog of web-conservatives, that the Annenberg Foundation is the result of the Annenberg family...think...TV GUIDE.
Now..if you think the family that brought you the TV GUIDE is a liberal family, then do some research for god's sakes on just who they are. Ronald Reagan...captain of conservative "all government is evil" -dom, was a guest with regularity at the Annenberg estates. Walter Annenberg was a fiscal conservative, appointed by Nixon to be ambassador to England.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Annenberg.
His foundation funded efforts at finding solutions to failing schools, one of which is where the conspiracy folks love to believe Obama was cooking up revolution and foment with Ayers. True to ideological blindness, the conspiracy folks never talk about the conservatives that served with Obama on that board...only Ayers...because it serves the agenda of sowing fear.
The only conflict of interest in anything that Factcheck provides, is that so many folks have absolutely ZERO FRICKING INTEREST IN FACTS!!!! They simply scour the web and media for anything that will make their paranoia and fear look reasonable.
I get so tired of this same crap floating again and again and again from people quoting from conspiracy interpreters, instead of real sources of information and news. You don't do good research by checking with sources grinding axes down to toothpicks. You do good research by finding several sources who have minimal to nothing to gain or lose from what you're finding.
I swear...you think you lay these demons down...and the little fuggers keep right on jumpin up and infecting the next reader...Unreal! 
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CHARLIgurl1
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Aug 24 @ 1:29AM
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It will never cease to amaze me the arguing that goes on about this subject.
The fact is, that no-one knows the truth either way.
This is why so many attorneys are taking this thing to the supreme court. Its not over yet either, the birthers are still going strong.
Us the low lives public.. the ordinary people are subject to web sites and youtube videos... either trying to prove or disprove his citizenship
left wing sites who support Obama say he's legal.. the right wing sites say hes not.
Who do we believe? who we choose to?.. who suits us in conjunction to which party we support?
What we ALL need to do is examine the facts of his life step by step ourselves and not rely on information given to us from sites that are bias. Use our own brains to figure it out.
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SweetNapaGuy
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Aug 24 @ 1:59AM
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that no-one knows the truth either way.
It all depends on how much you're willing to believe there's a conspiracy going on. There are two facts: (1) Obama posted a digital copy of his birth certificate and (2) the Hawaiian official in charge of the vital records said "yep, he's legal."
Beyond that, all there is, is more and more conjecture and insinuation.
At some point, convoluted theories have to be set aside as beyond ridiculous, and one just has to accept that Obama is a natural-born citizen.
Once this is done, it's possible to start the debate on the REAL flaws in his presidency, rather than some made-up stuff...
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CHARLIgurl1
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Aug 24 @ 3:12AM
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It all depends on how much you're willing to believe there's a conspiracy going on. You're quite correct... and the same could be said.....
Its all depends on whether you DONT believe theres a conspiracy
It depends which side of the fence youre on which will determine which you'd rather believe. BUT 'believe' is the operative word here.
You can A) believe that anything Obama posts is true and that no one has helped cover anything up..
or B) believe there IS a conspiracy..
or C) dont take either as gospel and do your own research. I vote for C.
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SweetNapaGuy
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Aug 24 @ 9:15AM
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A) believe that anything Obama posts is true and that no one has helped cover anything up..
or B) believe there IS a conspiracy..
or C) dont take either as gospel and do your own research. I vote for C.
You forgot D) apply logic to any conspiracy theory that comes up, and once it passed beyond the level of "absurd paranoid delusion," it's time to show a teeny-tiny bit of skepticism.
It's that "rational thinking" and "critical reasoning" and "healthy skepticism" stuff that you seem to be missing.
C'mon. I'm not saying that Obama is the best thing ever, I'm just saying judge him on what is REALITY, not on a bunch of rantings of lunatics that you read on the internet.
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CHARLIgurl1
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Aug 24 @ 2:48PM
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I think D sounds suspiciously like A to me.
The statement from Hawaii was and I quote...
"I, and Dr. Alvin Onaka have personally seen and verified that the Hawaii State Department of Health has Sen. Obama's original birth certificate on record in accordance with state policies and procedures."
This doesnt actually say much at all. It merely suggests that theyve seen it.. but which one? A natural born certificate, or a certificate that can be filled in and filed after being born abroad.? This was a legal practice in Hawaii at that time.
The list of attorneys taking this issue to the court of appeals is long, they must have some evidence to be able to do this, they cant go in with a few web sites and opinions.. they have evidence, affidavits from witnesses, facts etc. Some are even Democrats, so its not just the right wing doing this.
Obama's father was a Kenyan, Kenya being under British rule, means that Obama is dual citizenship, this also conflicts with the natural born regulation.
For as long as Obama keeps his original birth certificate sealed, this will continue.
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SweetNapaGuy
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Aug 24 @ 3:38PM
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Nice try, Charlie, but because of such comments as yours, Dr. Fukino had to issue a follow-up statement to her October 2008 statement:
Hawaiian official confirms they have Obama's birth certificate, and that Obama is a natural-born US citizen
"I, Dr. Chiyome Fukino, director of the Hawai'i State Department of Health, have seen the original vital records maintained on file by the Hawai'i State Department of Health verifying Barack Hussein Obama was born in Hawai'i and is a natural-born American citizen," Fukino said in a statement. "I have nothing further to add to this statement or my original statement issued in October 2008, over eight months ago."
Now, it doesn't get any more clear than that. Obama was born in the state of Hawaii.
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