Will Barack Obama have a filibuster-proof majority in the US Senate?
About a year ago, I posted two threads on the P&S forum – one speculating on the House and the other on the Senate. As you know, every two years, every member of the House of Representatives and 1/3 of the Senate is up for re-election. At that time, political pundits and odds-makers had Democrats picking up a healthy number of seats in the Senate, but falling short of the 60 votes needed to ensure an adequate defense against a Republican filibuster. Let’s look again at the races for the Senate in 2008.
Currently, Democrats have the slimmest of majorities in the US Senate – two seats, when you count Senator Bernie Sanders (Socialist) and Joe Lieberman (Independent) who are both caucusing with the Democrats. This has made Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s job extremely difficult. This November, American voters will decide on the fate of 35 seats – 33 are regular races and 2 are special elections – and of those 35 are 5 open races, a race in which neither candidate is the incumbent. Let’s look at these races first:
1. Virginia: Republican Senator John Warner is retiring. Mark Warner, no relation, and Jim Gilmore – both former governors – are vying John Warner’s seat. Mark Warner is cleaning Jim Gilmore’s clock in the polls and is expected to win handily and by such a wide margin, there is talk of a reverse coattails effect for Barack Obama. So this one is a pick-up for the Democrats.
2. New Mexico: Republican Senator Pete Domenici is retiring. The challengers are Tom Udall (D) versus Steve Pearce (R). Pearce defeated the more moderate Heather Wilson in a hard fought primary. Currently, Udall leads Pearce by double digits at 55%-41%. The Rasmussen power calculator gives Udall at 78% chance of victory in November. Second pick-up for the Democrats.
3. Colorado: Republican Wayne Allard is retiring and vying to become the junior senator is Mark Udall, cousin of Tom, and Bob Schaffer. While Udall’s margin has slipped from a double digit lead during the summer, he still leads Schaffer by 7-points and the Rasmussen power calculator gives him a 75% chance of winning the seat.
4. Nebraska: Senator Chuck Hagel is retiring. Former Republican Governor Mike Johanns has squared off against Democrat Scott Kleeb. Although Johanns poll numbers have trended downward since the beginning of the summer when he led by 25-points, he is expected to hold on and win next month.
5. Idaho: It looks like Idaho Republicans may survive Larry Craig. Jim Risch, the lieutenant governor, is expected to beat Larry LaRocco. The Rasmussen calculator gives Risch an 82% chance of beating LaRocco in November.
So, for open seats – Democrats 3 pick-ups and Democrats 2 holds. This brings the total to 54-46; however, Republicans are very worried that a number of other states will flip:
1. New Hampshire: Former Governor Jean Shaheen is leading incumbent John Sununu, Jr. in the Granite State. This is a rematch of their 2002 race. Shaheen’s lead has slipped since the summer, but she still leads by 5-points, 50%-45%. Also, she may benefit from the coattails of Barack Obama, who has opened up a significant lead over John McCain. Rasmussen views this seat as a likely pick up for the Democrats.
2. Alaska: With all the press focused on Governor Palin, few remember there is another important race in the 49th state. Ted Stevens, now at trial for federal ethics charges, is running for re-election. His opponent is Anchorage mayor, Mark Begich. Begich holds a narrow lead in this overwhelmingly Republican state, but unfortunately for Stevens, his trial is now underway. Stevens’ attorneys are pushing for a pre-election end to the trial, but if Stevens is found guilty, the race belongs to Begich. While still a toss-up, I think Begich might hold on to defeat the damaged Stevens.
3. Oregon: Republican Senator Gordon Smith may not realize the electoral luck that his two cousins – Mark and Tom Udall – enjoy. A month ago, Smith had an 8-point lead over Jeff Merkley, but now the two are tied. More bad news for Smith…Obama now leads McCain by more than 10-points, which could provide a coattail effect for Merkley.
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| Will Democrats Enjoy a Filibuster Proof Majority in the Senate? |
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eastham
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Oct 6 @ 3:17PM
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4. Minnesota: Incumbent Norm Coleman and challenger Al Franken are locked in a tie. Things do not look good for Coleman, who has never topped 50% in any of his polls conducted this year. In addition, Obama has opened a large lead in Minnesota, which may be sufficient to pull in votes for Franken.
5. Mississippi: There are two races this year in MS, Thad Cochran is expected to coast to victory, but Roger Wicker, who Haley Barbour named to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of Trent Lott is in the political fight of his life. Wicker and Ronnie Musgrove are in a statistical deadheat; however, the big unknown will be the effect that Barack Obama will have in this race. While Obama is not expected to carry Mississippi, he has electrified the state’s black voters, who also have embraced Musgrove over Wicker. Musgrove, who is white, has traditionally enjoyed support from the black community in Mississippi. Furthermore, Wicker’s campaign was hurt by Haley Barbour’s efforts to put his name at the bottom of the ballot, to eliminate any coattail effect from Obama.
6. North Carolina: Challenger State Senator Kay Hagen now leads incumbent Elizabeth “Liddy” Dole by 3-points. The Rasmussen power calculator gives Dole a 33% chance of holding onto her seat.
7. Kentucky: Once seen as improbable a win for Democrats as say…Alaska, the race in Kentucky is tightening up and Senator Mitch McConnell may be spending quality time with his wife, outgoing Labor Secretary Elaine Chao, looking for a new job. In a race where poll numbers have see-sawed back and forth between the two candidates, McConnell is in a statistical deadheat with Bruce Lunsford.
Two other states, Maine and Louisiana, saw a dip in the fortunes of their incumbents – Republican Susan Collins of Maine and Democrat Mary Landrieu of Louisiana. Both women now appear to on course to win their races. So, lets do the math. Democrats enjoy a 51-49 lead in the Senate and are looking at 9 pick-ups or a filibuster proof margin. Let’s see if the political prognosticators are right.
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