| Jan 7 @ 11:24 PM |
2010 Census will seat more Republicans and take seats away from Democrats
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Paralegal_at_Law
Posts: 5,066
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Thats the projection.
Northern Democrat States Lose US House Seats, Southern Republican States Gain Seats in Congress
New York Times Politics Blog Link says the same thing
Missouri will lose one seat in the US House of Representatives, but with both chambers of the Missouri General Assembly in Republican hands, its a slam dunk forgone conclusion that any new redistricting drawn by the Missouri House and Missouri Senate is going to pit two Democrat incumbents against each other in the same Congressional District while keeping the Republican seats "safe."
For instance, does anyone believe that Republican Whip Roy Blunt's seat in the US House of Representatives is in jeopardy due to redistricting in a state where his son is the Governor and his party controls both houses in the state legislature?
[Edited on 1/7/2008 11:50 PM]
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| Jan 7 @ 11:32 PM |
2010 Census will seat more Republicans and take seats away from Democrats |
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lefthandedluckie
Posts: 5,023
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Check your link, para!!
It is working! Will get back to you on this as I need some time to study.
[Edited on 1/7/2008 11:45 PM]
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| Jan 7 @ 11:37 PM |
2010 Census will seat more Republicans and take seats away from Democrats
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SweetNapaGuy
Posts: 4,526
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Yes, the link is broken. Please repost.
A non-analytical listing of projected changes.
I wonder how many Republican-dominated legislatures will pull a DeLay and thoroughly gerrymander their states? (Shoot, given the gains made by Democrats after the last election, I wouldn't be surprised if they did a midterm gerrymander in a half-dozen states, edging out lots of Republican Representatives...)
There's the typical "liberal media" reporting on the "other side of the story" further down in the article.
Eg:
1) New residents moving to these states are not necessarily Republicans.
2) The Democrats are gaining seats in "blue states."
3) Some solid "red states" are turning into "swing states."
[Edited on 1/8/2008 12:00 AM]
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| Jan 7 @ 11:52 PM |
2010 Census will seat more Republicans and take seats away from Democrats |
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Nightowl001
Posts: 4,087
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Guys, guys. Don't worry about the link and the research. Read the title. The CENSUS will change the seats. Changing population demographics in certain areas of the country (as we trend more and more toward urbanization) will increase population in areas that are currently held by Republicans, and he's saying that based on that alone, Democratic areas will lose seats as they lose population. It's another pie-in-the-sky projection by conservatives that assumes that seats won't change hands by VOTERS in those districts. It's a waste of time to even discuss.
Edited to add:
I'm sure it will show the same long-term trends as prior census reports, that population is shifting away from the Northern states to the Southern states, away from Liberal enclaves like New Hampshire and Vermont to Georgia and Florida and Texas. The census figures from the 2010 census won't be applied to reapportionment of districts until at least 2012 anyway, and maybe not until later than that. It doesn't take into account ANYTHING except shifting population demographics.
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| Jan 8 @ 12:18 AM |
2010 Census will seat more Republicans and take seats away from Democrats
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Paralegal_at_Law
Posts: 5,066
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It doesn't take into account ANYTHING except shifting population demographics.
After the 2010 Census, when those new Southern State Republicans are seated in the US House of Representatives, and a few of those stalwart Democrats from Northern States have taken their seats home with them, the end result is going to be a gain of seats in the US House by the Republicans, in an era when the Democratis majority is a razor thin statistic.
It is foolhardy to dismiss any mechanism by which seats are taken in the US House of Representatives, whether change occurs by electoral defeat or by operation of law when more seats are awarded to states that lean away from the path trod by the current majority party.
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| Jan 8 @ 12:46 AM |
2010 Census will seat more Republicans and take seats away from Democrats |
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Nightowl001
Posts: 4,087
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It is foolhardy to dismiss any mechanism by which seats are taken in the US House of Representatives
What is foolhardy is to make any assumptions that those seats will be taken following a population shift. I'm sure the Census report doesn't say "Republicans All moving to Florida!" This is a really, really desperate attempt to try to pretend there is any good news for your side of the political fence. Get a grip.
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| Jan 8 @ 6:36 AM |
2010 Census will seat more Republicans and take seats away from Democrats
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MusicMonster
Posts: 2,954
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There's that darned "Slam-Dunk" term again... 
Where have I heard that before??  Oh that's right! Somewhere just a bit prior to "Mission Accomplished"..
Actually I predict the Dems will take a larger majority in Congress next time around.. The Repubs made too much of a mess of things when they had it all. The Dems haven't been doing much better, but they haven't had enough numbers to really maintain any level of control, and their leadership is amazingly weak..
Then of course you have Lieberman, who can't seem to figure out which side he's really on.
-MM 
[Edited on 1/8/2008 7:26 AM]
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| Jan 8 @ 7:07 AM |
2010 Census will seat more Republicans and take seats away from Democrats |
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eastham
Posts: 6,317
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In 2006, Howard Dean, the chairman of the DNC, embarked on a new 50 states-strategy. The strategy focused on party building across all states. It was responsible not only for returning the House and Senate to the hands of Democrats, but also was responsible for turnovers in governorships and state houses.
Dean has more than enough money to press on with the 50-state strategy. The strategy netted 9 new governors races in the D-column. Some states, like California, may have a Republican in the governor's mansion, but have legislatures controlled by Democrats.
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