| Jan 9 @ 2:18 PM |
The Bradley Effect - Reason For The Outstanding Poll Inaccuracy In NH?
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LipGlossQueen9
Posts: 10,079
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Chris Matthews, as Iam pointed out in another thread, was the first to recognise this as a possible reason for the poll inaccuracy in New Hampshire.
The Bradley Effect basically means that in an election or primary election where there is a non-white candidate, voters tell pollsters they will vote for the non-white candidate in order to sound "politically correct", or "not racist", but when they are in the voting booth, they actually vote for the white candidate.
Do you believe that what we have seen in New Hampshire could have been the Bradley Effect, and if not, please explain your reasoning.
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| Jan 9 @ 2:26 PM |
The Bradley Effect - Reason For The Outstanding Poll Inaccuracy In NH? |
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Nightowl001
Posts: 4,087
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I don't think so, LGQ. Of course, it's only my opinion. I just think, though, if the Bradley effect had truly been a contributing factor to any degree you would have seen John Edwards come out on top, since Obama and Clinton are BOTH "minority" candidates.
Again, my personal opinion, and I'm certain there will be many, many who disagree, but CNN running the clip of Bill Clinton talking about Obama's votes in the Senate being right in line with Hillary Clinton's votes, while he was talking about being more of an agent of change actually had a little effect. And they showed that clip many, many times the evening before the election, after those poll numbers had come out showing Obama leading. (Now the conservatives can all come in crying about "The Clinton News Network," even though it was meant to be dismissive of Bill.) The media was kind of picking at Bill for what many of them described as his petulant tone, but I think they truly underestimate how popular Clinton was. Also, the #1 issue (in exit polling) for many of the voters in New Hampshire was the economy, and I believe there is a lot of remembering that we had a balanced budget under Clinton, things were improving, and the current administration has failed miserably in that arena. There may be an associative effect at work, where they are saying, "The first Clinton improved the economy, and he'll be standing right next to her. Maybe there's a good chance the second Clinton can bring the economy back around!"
That's just my take on it, as you asked me to explain why I didn't think the Bradley effect was a major factor.
[Edited on 1/9/2008 2:27 PM]
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| Jan 9 @ 2:27 PM |
The Bradley Effect - Reason For The Outstanding Poll Inaccuracy In NH?
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LipGlossQueen9
Posts: 10,079
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Also, though, I've heard that it's just the nature of NH voters to be contrary. 
Who knows?
I just find this interesting. I've also heard that female voters in NH were not originally going to turn out turned out to vote for Hillary because of how she's been beaten up the last few weeks.
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| Jan 9 @ 2:40 PM |
The Bradley Effect - Reason For The Outstanding Poll Inaccuracy In NH? |
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Gallows_Humor
Posts: 7,784
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I feel that at the time that each individual decided just who they were going to actually vote for... they went with the known.. rather than voting for the unknown... (trying to determine if this was a racial thing is just wrong...)
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| Jan 9 @ 2:42 PM |
The Bradley Effect - Reason For The Outstanding Poll Inaccuracy In NH?
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LipGlossQueen9
Posts: 10,079
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No, it's really not wrong. Race is a part of our society, like it or not, Gallows.
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| Jan 9 @ 2:46 PM |
The Bradley Effect - Reason For The Outstanding Poll Inaccuracy In NH? |
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Gallows_Humor
Posts: 7,784
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so very true... and as long as people still focus on it... it will be an issue...
Hillary won... so what... saying that the reason she did might have been that Obama is........ is just wrong.. no matter how you slice it...
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| Jan 9 @ 2:48 PM |
The Bradley Effect - Reason For The Outstanding Poll Inaccuracy In NH?
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LipGlossQueen9
Posts: 10,079
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I'm not asking why Hillary won...I'm asking why the polls got it so incredibly wrong. I don't know how you read that question wrong. The people that I pay attention to, and even the Clinton camp, were predicting a double-digit win for Obama based on polls. But that didn't happen, did it? No, it didn't. My question is if whether or not the Bradley Effect played a part in that.
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| Jan 9 @ 2:51 PM |
The Bradley Effect - Reason For The Outstanding Poll Inaccuracy In NH? |
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Gallows_Humor
Posts: 7,784
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I feel that at the time that each individual decided just who they were going to actually vote for... they went with the known.. rather than voting for the unknown...
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| Jan 9 @ 2:52 PM |
The Bradley Effect - Reason For The Outstanding Poll Inaccuracy In NH?
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kjac
Posts: 5,484
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As one of the initial members of the MD List of Racists, I'm wondering if the supporters of Obama and Hillary will turn to their sex or race as an excuse for every one of their losses.
If so, it's going to be a long race to see who beats the republican sacrificial lamb.
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| Jan 9 @ 2:54 PM |
The Bradley Effect - Reason For The Outstanding Poll Inaccuracy In NH? |
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LipGlossQueen9
Posts: 10,079
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I'm not using Obama's race as an excuse, I was one of the only people arguing that America is ready for a black president the other day. I'm just wondering.
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| Jan 9 @ 3:07 PM |
The Bradley Effect - Reason For The Outstanding Poll Inaccuracy In NH?
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Loreli
Posts: 20,161
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Could you post a link to where the polls had it terribly wrong, LGQ?
The only thing I read leading up to it was a town of like 37 people-hardly an indication. I haven't seen any concrete after-primary truths.
So-what did I miss?
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| Jan 9 @ 3:11 PM |
The Bradley Effect - Reason For The Outstanding Poll Inaccuracy In NH? |
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LipGlossQueen9
Posts: 10,079
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Have you been watching the news, Lor? The polls predicted a double digit win in New Hampshire for Obama. There was only one poll I saw that had Hillary ahead by a narrow margin, and I forget the name of it.
Evidence of Obama's lead over Clinton In NH
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| Jan 9 @ 3:15 PM |
The Bradley Effect - Reason For The Outstanding Poll Inaccuracy In NH?
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Heaveninawildflower
Posts: 15,203
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http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/new-hampshire.html
Here's a link from 1/6-1/7 for New Hampshire
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| Jan 9 @ 3:17 PM |
The Bradley Effect - Reason For The Outstanding Poll Inaccuracy In NH? |
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lefthandedluckie
Posts: 5,023
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Everyone wants to give an excuse for something that happens...kinda like opinions and arse holes...everybody has one!
Here is mine. Simple and to the point....they polled the ones that had or were voting for Obama. Each time they polled one he/she was an Obama voter!
This happened before in Iowa 4 years ago....when a certain Dr. came on stage and made a spectacle of himself...after losing! He was the numero uno man at that time, too!
Polls are like "toilet Paper" use it for about three seconds throw it away and get another. Because that is how long they last! 
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| Jan 9 @ 3:30 PM |
The Bradley Effect - Reason For The Outstanding Poll Inaccuracy In NH?
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Gallows_Humor
Posts: 7,784
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 ... 
I'm not asking why Hillary won...I'm asking why the polls got it so incredibly wrong. I don't know how you read that question wrong.
.. I didn't read it wrong.. I just took it two steps further..
Obama is a viable candidate.. bringing his race or religion into any discussion ( imho) feeds into the fears of some voters, and I suspect that the opposition will keep on asking "innocent" questions to keep bringing this gambit into play...... Hillary now... and if Obama wins the democratic nomination, the republicans will be next...
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| Jan 9 @ 3:32 PM |
The Bradley Effect - Reason For The Outstanding Poll Inaccuracy In NH? |
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LipGlossQueen9
Posts: 10,079
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Alright, then...
Why is Ron Paul winning a plethora of MSNBC internet polls but barely winning fourth in Iowa and New Hampshire?
It's the same question, I suppose, except there's no name for it. Is it just that his supporters are mostly young people, and they're not turning out?
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| Jan 9 @ 3:34 PM |
The Bradley Effect - Reason For The Outstanding Poll Inaccuracy In NH?
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Loreli
Posts: 20,161
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Thanks, LGQ and Heaven.
I have to say, from people I know, that a "pre" anything poll is really not a good indication.
People get tired of the calls and the people at their door. Only the die hard will follow through and attend these kinds of things.
And-even these arent anything to be concerned as far as true winner yet. Come Super Tuesday, there will be a little more indication.
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| Jan 9 @ 3:36 PM |
The Bradley Effect - Reason For The Outstanding Poll Inaccuracy In NH? |
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Gallows_Humor
Posts: 7,784
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Why is Ron Paul winning a plethora of MSNBC internet polls but barely winning fourth in Iowa and New Hampshire?
I don't know.. but I suspect it is because internet polls are even more like...
..... "toilet Paper" use it for about three seconds throw it away and get another. Because that is how long they last!
[Edited on 1/9/2008 3:38 PM]
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| Jan 9 @ 3:36 PM |
The Bradley Effect - Reason For The Outstanding Poll Inaccuracy In NH?
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Nightowl001
Posts: 4,087
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Yes, and Yes. The internet polls are often not set up to prevent one person from voting multiple times, as well as not always having a secure method to exclude those below the legal age to actually vote in the primary or election. And I think a lot of his supporters like to talk a big game but aren't actually showing up at the polls to pull the lever.
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| Jan 9 @ 3:37 PM |
The Bradley Effect - Reason For The Outstanding Poll Inaccuracy In NH? |
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LipGlossQueen9
Posts: 10,079
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^ Tell that to the Paul Parasites
They keep using those "wins" in MSNBC internet polls as "evidence" for the "viability" of their candidate.
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