| Oct 6 @ 8:06 AM |
Wait Til Monday!
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eastham
Posts: 6,337
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Yep, how many times since the veep debate, despite post debate polls giving Biden a clear win over Palin, did we hear the mantra to wait until Monday's polls came out.
I guess if I were John McCain, I could have waited a lifetime to see numbers as bad as the ones which came out on Sunday.
On Friday, Rasmussen listed 5 states that McCain had to win in order to have a snowball's chance. Well, the Monday Rasmussen numbers are (in part) in and McCain trails in the national tracking polls by a significant margin 51%-44%, anytime a candidate crosses the 50% mark, it's bad news for his/her opponent. And those 5 states? Rasmussen updated some states yesterday, Sunday, at 5pm. They will have all new poll numbers again today at 6pm, but I doubt the events of the weekend will change the numbers all that much.
North Carolina -- McCain trails Obama 50%-47%. (Rasmussen)
Virginia -- 50%-47% Obama over McCain (Rasmussen)
Ohio -- 49%-42% (Columbus Dispath)
Colorado -- tied at 44% (Denver Post/Mason Dixon)
Florida -- 51%-43% (CNN)
McCain needs to win all five of these states, and there is no way he's going to be able to do so. He can and has gone negative, but that is a double-edged sword that can come back and hurt him.
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| Oct 6 @ 8:23 AM |
Wait Til Monday! |
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Nightowl001
Posts: 4,134
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Well.. with 4 weeks to go, I'm not willing to call it yet. A lot can happen in the next 4 Tuesdays. (Frankly, I'm still waiting for shrub to manufacture a reason to call off the election.)
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| Oct 6 @ 9:03 AM |
Wait Til Monday!
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KatiefromStafford
Posts: 2,254
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get ready for a call of martial law.. you watch, he will come up with a reason..
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| Oct 6 @ 10:34 AM |
Wait Til Monday! |
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Nightowl001
Posts: 4,134
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Well, it's Monday. And in the opening 30 minutes of the market, the DJIA is down 400 points. Looks like it's going to be a long day on the Street.
Incidentally, it came out on Politico.com on Saturday, but there's more bad news for McCain. IF he possibly wins, it's looking increasingly like he may not have a bulletproof veto pen. Dems could hit 60 seats in the Senate
And this morning's Arizona Republic isn't being real kind to Sarah, either.
Would all those of you defending Sarah Palin as "real" and "a much-needed breath of fresh air" please stop?
The jobs she has held are too small for her to be ready to play an effective role in Washington. She is not going to shake 'em up because most incumbents will be sent back to Washington in the November election.
Dick Cheney leaves an unpopular legacy in Washington, and Palin lacks the tools to reverse that. Joe Biden, as an insider, may be able to do so. Yes, Barack Obama lacks experience, but if the argument for Palin is that she is not a Washington insider, what about those 26 years in the Senate for John McCain? Palin's expertise too slim
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| Oct 6 @ 10:40 AM |
Wait Til Monday!
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Heaveninawildflower
Posts: 15,329
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NO, I think those were just 'letters to the editor' but working here in Scottsdale (where the writer of that particular letter's from), which you'd think would be solid McCain territory. that's what I'm hearing from all sides.
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| Oct 6 @ 10:56 AM |
Wait Til Monday! |
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eastham
Posts: 6,337
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But those letters are reflective of an overall unease within Republican circles with both John McCain and Sarah Palin.
George Will, Charles Krauthammer and others have all written columns expressing their reservations with the ticket. And now you can add Peggy Noonan to that group.
If you remember, Peggy Noonan, a speech writer for Reagan and George HW Bush, was caught on a live mike telling what a disaster the choice of Sarah Palin was. While she wrote a tepid endorsement of Palin's debate appearance, Noonan gave a blistering assessment of Palin on "Meet the Press."
"She is a naturalb, but I will tell you, I feel increased concern about... what she thinks of as populism, as her populist approach. There are two ways, you know, her stuff about, 'I'm main street, you are the elite, I'm Joe six-pack.' She actually says 'I'm the Joe six-pack candidate.' This has me thinking, gosh, would Lincoln say 'I represent the backwoods type?' Would FDR say, 'the New York aristocracy deserves another moment in the sun, vote for me?' There's something weird about it. But there is also something, for me, concerning. Populism as a tactic is justified often in politics. 'I need this program, the people want it.' Populism as a strategy, 'we're the good guys, you're the bad guys,' is not good. And if that's the road they are going, that's not a good road to be on. It is not helpful to the country."
Sam Stein's blog on Huffington.
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| Oct 7 @ 7:47 AM |
Wait Til Monday!
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eastham
Posts: 6,337
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Sorry for the double post...
Anyway, Rasmussen released his latest poll numbers at 6pm last night. And despite the belief by some that Sarah Palin's debate performance would have a meaningful change in the poll numbers for McCain's benefit, the opposite appears to be true.
According to Rasmussen, Obama is up 8-points over McCain in the daily tracking poll at 52%-44%. Anytime a candidate cracks the 50% mark it is significant, and it is also significant that this is the widest margin enjoyed by any candidate this election cycle. The Rasmussen Power Calculator gives Obama a 68% chance of winning come November.
Looking to the remaining battleground states of Colorado, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia -- and keeping in mind that McCain must win all of them to remain afloat:
Colorado: Obama appears to be pulling away from McCain and leads in that state 51%-45%. Two weeks ago, McCain led by 2-points. Rasmussen has formally moved this battleground state from "toss up" status to "leans Democratic."
Florida: Obama has pulled ahead in Florida, 52%-45% and the Power Calculator gives Obama a 60% chance of winning this key state. One of the key elements to Obama's upward movement in the Florida polls is that Florida voters appear to be far more comfortable with Biden as veep than Palin.
Virginia: Obama has for the 3rd straight week, mantained a small lead over McCain in Virginia, 50%-48%. Rasmussen still lists this state as a toss-up.
North Carolina: For the 2nd straight week, Obama leads in North Carolina by 50%-47%, slightly better than last weeks 50%-48%. Obama enjoys a higher favorability rating than McCain, which must also be buoying hope within the Obama camp that they can hang on and carry North Carolina.
In addition to the 5 battleground states that everyone believed McCain had to win to prevail in November, Missouri, which once was firmly in the McCain camp appears to be slipping away and Barack Obama has opened up a tiny lead in that state. Obama is now polling at 50% to McCain's 47% with Bob Barr and Ralph Nader each picking up 1%.
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| Oct 7 @ 12:25 PM |
Wait Til Monday! |
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vinnytmd
Posts: 6,004
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From CBS -
In a sign that the race for president has returned to about where it was before the first presidential debate, the Obama-Biden ticket leads the McCain-Palin ticket 47 percent to 43 percent among registered voters in a new CBS News poll.
The Obama-Biden ticket led by a wider margin, nine percentage points, in a CBS News poll released last Wednesday, before Joe Biden and Sarah Palin faced off in the vice presidential debate. Obama-Biden led by five percentage points on Sept. 25.
In the new poll, the Democratic ticket leads by 3 percentage points, 48 percent to 45 percent, among likely voters.
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| Oct 7 @ 1:16 PM |
Wait Til Monday!
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lefthandedluckie
Posts: 5,075
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Obama/Biden '08! Now, that is good for America! 
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| Oct 7 @ 1:55 PM |
Wait Til Monday! |
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Gallows_Humor
Posts: 8,063
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polls are  now.. it is now all about the electoral college results... wake up and smell the flowers vinny....
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| Oct 7 @ 2:05 PM |
Wait Til Monday!
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burnslikethesun
Posts: 9,605
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Senile, denial and ignorance is the republican doctrine. They lost they just havent hit the ground yet.
it is now all about the electoral college results
 then its really already over.
Obama Gains in States That Went for Bush On the eve of the penultimate presidential debate, a new TIME/CNN poll shows John McCain still struggling in states won by George W. Bush in 2004, a sign that last week's vice-presidential debate had little effect on voter opinion. * I called that right after the debate was over.  In North Carolina, which Bush won by more than 12 percentage points in both 2000 and 2004, McCain and Obama are locked in a dead heat, with each candidate garnering the support of 49% of likely voters. In Indiana, which Bush won by 21 points in 2004 and 16 points in 2000, McCain maintains a slight 5-point lead over Obama, with 51% of likely voters, compared with Obama's 46%. In the crucial swing state of Ohio, which Bush won by slight margins in both 2000 and 2004, McCain trails Obama by 3 points, with the support of 47% of voters, compared with Obama's 50%. Obama also holds a statistically significant 8-point lead over McCain in New Hampshire and a 5-point lead in Wisconsin, two states that Democrat John Kerry was able to win in 2004. As a result of the new survey, CNN now considers New Hampshire and Wisconsin to be Obama-leaning states, after previously being considered toss-ups. North Carolina is now considered a toss-up, after previously being categorized as a McCain-leaning state. The polls were conducted between Oct. 3 and 6, after last Thursday's debate. They have a margin of error of +/- 3.5 to 4 percentage points. Last week, the McCain campaign reacted to a polling downturn by shuttering its operation in the state of Michigan and redistributing staff to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Maine, where electoral votes are distributed by congressional district. In a conference call last week, Mike DuHaime, the McCain campaign's political director , acknowledged that the national mood and Obama's deep pockets had put previously solid Republican states like Indiana in play. * AKA OUT OF TOUCH
"I do think just the overall environment right now that we face is one of the worst environments for any Republican in probably 35 years," DuHaime said. "Any time you have that, you have states move within that margin." After two grueling years, only two major events remain in the 2008 presidential campaign: a town-hall forum Tuesday in Tennessee and a debate on Oct. 15 in New York. In a nod to the dwindling window of opportunity, McCain again sharpened his attacks on Obama during a stump speech Monday in New Mexico, charging that Obama harbors a "back story" on every issue that needs to be explored. "All people want to know is, what has this man ever actually accomplished in government? What does he plan for America?" McCain said. "In short, who is the real Barack Obama? But ask such questions and all you get in response is another barrage of angry insults." * aint that the big cracked pot calling the kettle black, atlease his right in a round about way. Obama is black. Campaigning in North Carolina, Obama countered by charging that McCain and his aides were "gambling that they can distract you with smears rather than talk to you about substance."
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| Oct 7 @ 7:48 PM |
Wait Til Monday! |
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vinnytmd
Posts: 6,004
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GH - If you do not listen to polls where do you get your EC info from? 
The liberal media is always in the can for Democrats. Many are foolish enough to believe them.
Here is a typical article from 2000. Of course we know who won the election.
Does this sound familiar?
Why Bush Is Toast
By William Saletan
Posted Thursday, Sept. 14, 2000, at 3:00 AM ET
Since Labor Day, the media have released about 20 polls on the presidential race. Three show a dead heat, one shows George W. Bush leading by a single percentage point, and the rest show Al Gore leading by one to 10 points. In the latest polls, Gore leads by an average of five points. It's fashionable at this stage to caution that "anything can happen," that Bush is "retooling," and that the numbers can turn in Bush's favor just as easily as they turned against him. But they can't. The numbers are moving toward Gore because fundamental dynamics tilt the election in his favor. The only question has been how far those dynamics would carry him. Now that he has passed Bush, the race is over.
Yes, in principle, Bush could win. The stock market could crash. Gore could be caught shagging an intern. Bush could electrify the country with the greatest performance in the history of presidential debates. But barring such a grossly unlikely event, there is no reason to think Bush will recover. Ultimately, reasons drive elections. For months, pundits yapped about Bush's lead in the polls without scrutinizing the basis of that lead. Now they're doing the same to Gore. But look closely at the trends beneath the horse-race numbers, and you'll realize why it's practically impossible to turn those numbers around. Gore doesn't just have the lead. On each underlying factor, he has the upside as well.
Ignorance from 2000 - Sounds Familiar~!
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| Oct 7 @ 7:54 PM |
Wait Til Monday!
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burnslikethesun
Posts: 9,605
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Your and your McCant are stuck in the pass.
And you wont have Florida to help rip off an election.
Lets talk about today and whats happening shall we. Since it seems that the Dems will control the house, the senate and now soon the big chair.
I waited til Monday, and most of America seems to be saying the same thing as me, 59%. The repubes are losing ground faster then they are losing touch of reality.
Proof? I offer Vincent. 
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| Oct 7 @ 7:58 PM |
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vinnytmd
Posts: 6,004
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Decoder ring please
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| Oct 7 @ 9:43 PM |
Wait Til Monday!
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sealacamp
Posts: 3,150
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They lost they just havent hit the ground yet.
No you are dead wrong! If obamanation gets the keys to this country it won't be a republican loss. It will be an everyone loss. That means you, me, and everyone else. Read that and weep.
This is about what is good for the whole USA not one party winning over another. Such pettiness has gotten us exactly where we are now. But I guess you all don't really care about that. And if your man gets in there when you look back at this moment in the mirror I doubt seriously that you will be laughing any more.
S
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| Oct 7 @ 9:49 PM |
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BandTMom
Posts: 28,396
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This is about what is good for the whole USA not one party winning over another.
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| Oct 7 @ 10:28 PM |
Wait Til Monday!
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lefthandedluckie
Posts: 5,075
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Actually what has gotten us here in this mess today is George Bush and his inability to make change for a dollar...much less being able to run this country! And McCain will just have to lose!
I will enjoy that immensely!
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