| Oct 29, 2008 @ 2:36 AM |
Is it over yet?
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burnslikethesun
Posts: 13,027
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The LEADERS, that are in the know, seem to think so.
McCain struggles for upset in Pa.; GOP doubts grow Doubts about John McCain's chances for the presidency grew louder among fellow Republicans on Tuesday as a White House race largely focused on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania entered its final week.
Republican delusion will never quit! 
Makes for a hell of a good entertainment that cost nothing.
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| Oct 29, 2008 @ 6:06 AM |
Is it over yet? |
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KatiefromStafford
Posts: 2,750
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But now they say the race is getting tighter.. for me, I just wish it was over.. losing too many friends over this.. and to me that is sad. An election should not divide a country this way. 
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| Oct 29, 2008 @ 8:00 AM |
Is it over yet?
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SweetNapaGuy
Posts: 8,519
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Katie, the polls (from TIPP) from a week ago showed the race down to +1.1%.
Of course, NOW the same pollster shows the race is back up to +4.0%. Whoops, looks like the celebration was a premature e-joculation. (And that's outside the 3.5% margin of error, by the way...)
It basically comes down to a few battleground states. The "solid lock" states aren't going to change. A candidate increasing their lead in the state from single-digits to double-digits isn't going to gain them more electoral votes.
WIth Obama's "solid lock" and "probable lock (blue state)" total of 264, he needs one (or perhaps two states, if Nevada is one of them). He can win with any ONE of Colorado, Virginia, Florida, or Ohio.
McCain needs all four, plus Nevada. Plus his "probable lock (red states)" (Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina)." (Total: 274.) If he loses ANY of the five states in which he is trailing, he loses.
Which is why McCain is making such an effort in Pennsylvania. He's conceded Colorado (as well as Iowa, and New Mexico), so that means he has to take away a high-EC-count state from Obama. Pity for him that he's trailing in the latest polls...
It's still possible he can pull off an upset victory. America DOES love its underdogs. However, there's only 6 days left. And McCain has to win in a lot of battleground states yet (eight out of nine, given that New Hampshire is a "blue" state). Obama just needs one battleground state with 6-plus EC votes (plus the "blue" state of New Hampshire).
It isn't over yet, mind you. Those four states (CO, FL, VA, OH) are trending towards Obama, but only just barely outside of the margin of error (and some of the data I've seen is more than a week old). Still, the polling data only has to be right in one state for Obama to get the Oval Office and become our next mediocre president. For McCain to win, the polling data has to be wrong in every one of those four states (plus NV).
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| Oct 29, 2008 @ 9:27 AM |
Is it over yet? |
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RareQuestor
Posts: 2,652
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Count your blessings, Katie. At least we are trading insults instead of bullets. This is pretty tame compared to election violence in other countries.
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| Oct 29, 2008 @ 9:52 AM |
Is it over yet?
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theblessedone
Posts: 172
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I'm looking forward to the end of this (election cycle) process. In part, that's because I have already voted. In part, it's because of the ridiculous length of time this country devotes to the process. In part, it's because I tire easily of the (extra) mudslinging and name-calling that is such a palpable element of politics.
I haven't lost any friends in this process. Those who are close to me accept and agree that we should be able to disagree vehemently, but respectfully...and wake up as friends the next day.
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| Oct 29, 2008 @ 10:00 AM |
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Loreli
Posts: 25,408
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I agree Blessed.
I voted.
I can't wait for it to be over.
And, if reasonable discussion over politics (or religion) can't be held with "friends"-it shouldn't be discussed.
Or-look at it this way...they probably weren't good friends in the first place.
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| Oct 29, 2008 @ 10:02 AM |
Is it over yet?
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eastham
Posts: 7,913
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While we are a much larger geographical country than those in Europe, I have been intrigued by the time limits that the law in various European countries places on conduct of campaigning. However, given all of the enormous advantages of incumbency, would challengers be hurt by a shortened campaign season?
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| Oct 29, 2008 @ 10:10 AM |
Is it over yet? |
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lj450
Posts: 9,551
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Polls are worthless. People lie.
How come no one wants to address this....  Remember the primaries? He was well ahead of Hillary in some states according to the polls, yet mysteriously lost.
In high-profile contests where one of the major party candidates is black, pre-election telephone polls have often been wrong, overstating the strength of the black candidate. In polling circles this is known as the “Bradley effect” or the “Wilder effect” or the “Dinkins effect.” Will it also be known as the Obama effect?
The Obama Effect
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| Oct 29, 2008 @ 10:12 AM |
Is it over yet?
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willsmalto
Posts: 3,645
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Is it over yet?
is it just me or is there any one out there who watches a basketball game standing up?
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| Oct 29, 2008 @ 10:44 AM |
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tatiana329
Posts: 1,122
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This country is a business like it or not as that is the role of government.... law and commerce...
not emotions and craziness like spreading the wealth which you know isn't going to happen. First of all anyone who thinks thats a good idea must be a loser with nothing... secondly, anyone with money isn't going to be handding it out for free.
Big business will move out of the country and take all its jobs with it... car makers, airplane makers, beauty and camera companies............ they are all moving out or raising prices where you won't be able to afford it.
Obamas plan will destroy us or at least cripple us enough for the terrorists to take over.
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| Oct 29, 2008 @ 11:09 AM |
Is it over yet?
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kjac
Posts: 8,163
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What I find amazing is that even though he won the democratic nomination, the few and shameful are still hoping for racism to suddenly grip America and cost Obama the election.
And these are the same people who not only say they aren't racist, but that racism isn't a real problem in America.
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| Oct 29, 2008 @ 11:11 AM |
Is it over yet? |
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tatiana329
Posts: 1,122
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Lets all keep in mind the opinions of this forum do not reflect the actual voting population and your going to have a lot of Obama supporters on a free forum, who have time to sit all day posting...
People with real jobs don't hang out at these sites, they dont have time.
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| Oct 29, 2008 @ 11:13 AM |
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kjac
Posts: 8,163
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People with real jobs don't hang out at these sites, they dont have time.
And yet, here you are.
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| Oct 29, 2008 @ 11:17 AM |
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Loreli
Posts: 25,408
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People with real jobs don't hang out at these sites, they dont have time. 
What's your point?
Some here are retired and just interacting. There's a handful of Repubs that spend a LOT of time here...and that's their business.
There's also plenty that spend time here while they are at work....is that where you are? (asking nicely)
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| Oct 29, 2008 @ 11:22 AM |
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tatiana329
Posts: 1,122
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I dont live here and post daily...
I have a real job and pay taxes, lots of them... my point is on free forums
your going to have a lot of slackers
and
free forums and those who spend hours daily posting are not people
who are the majority of voters.
read again if you missed the point as its clear as daylight.
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| Oct 29, 2008 @ 11:24 AM |
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kjac
Posts: 8,163
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I do see tatiana's point. There are people here who spend at least 18 hours a day on here doing nothing but spewing hatred and venom. But as you can plainly see by reading the forums and threads, they aren't confined to the Obama supporters. 
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| Oct 29, 2008 @ 11:42 AM |
Is it over yet?
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theblessedone
Posts: 172
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Lets all keep in mind the opinions of this forum do not reflect the actual voting population and your going to have a lot of Obama supporters on a free forum, who have time to sit all day posting...
People with real jobs don't hang out at these sites, they dont have time.
There is a degree of clarity here. Indeed, opinions presented in this forum are not (summarily) representative of the general voting population.
Obama supporters. Free forum. Time to sit all day, posting. People with real jobs don't hang out at these sites.
If you're an Obama supporter, on a free forum...then you have time to sit all day because you don't have a real job.
That's a very simple if-then statement. Unfortunately, without the presence of facts, it's no more (or less) substantive than any other opinion.
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| Oct 29, 2008 @ 11:53 AM |
Is it over yet? |
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Loreli
Posts: 25,408
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Yup-
I got what she said....and it was very derrogatory toward Dems.
If you're an Obama supporter, on a free forum...then you have time to sit all day because you don't have a real job.
Now, substitute ANY supporter, and it's a fair and real assessment.
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| Oct 29, 2008 @ 11:58 AM |
Is it over yet?
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Gallows_Humor
Posts: 13,662
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What I find amazing is that even though he won the democratic nomination, the few and shameful are still hoping for racism to suddenly grip America and cost Obama the election.
And these are the same people who not only say they aren't racist, but that racism isn't a real problem in America.
well said Kjac..
btw.. the bradley effect...
... was named for Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in voter polls going into the elections
lj...that was over 25 years ago... times have changed dramatically since then..
One analysis of 133 senate and gubernatorial elections between 1989 and 2006 suggests that "before 1996, the median gap for black candidates was 3.1 percentage points, while for subsequent years it was -0.3 percentage points
and furthermore...
In 2006, there was speculation that the Bradley effect might appear in the Tennessee race for United States Senator between Harold Ford, Jr. and white candidate Bob Corker.[37][38][30][39][18] Ford lost by a slim margin, but an examination of exit polling data indicated that the percentage of white voters who voted for him remained close to the percentage that indicated they would do so in polls conducted prior to the election.[18][40] Several other 2006 biracial contests saw pre-election polls predict their respective elections' final results with similar accuracy.[17]
In the race for United States Senator from Maryland, black Republican candidate Michael Steele lost by a wider margin than predicted by late polls. However, those polls correctly predicted Steele's numbers, with the discrepancy in his margin of defeat resulting from their underestimating the numbers for his white Democratic opponent, then longtime Representative Ben Cardin. Those same polls also underestimated the Democratic candidate in the state's race for governor — a race in which both candidates were white.[17]
conclusion is..
the bradley effect is a red herring...and usually ..is only being promoted by parties with a racist agenda.......
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_bradley_effect.... )
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| Oct 29, 2008 @ 12:54 PM |
Is it over yet? |
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lj450
Posts: 9,551
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Please explain what happened during the democratic primaries (in Connecticut I believe?) or one of the new england states, where polls showed Obama with a huge lead over Hillary......yet he lost.
Typical....call a white person a racist for pointing out racial disparities.
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