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| Oct 12 @ 3:47 PM |
Recession over,
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burnslikethesun
Posts: 13,027
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Recession may be over, but recovery is painful
Survey of top economists by National Association of Business Economics finds more than 80% believe the worst is over, but recovery will be slow and painful.By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
October 12, 2009: 10:28 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- More than 80% of top economists believe that the recession that started almost two years ago is finally over. But most don't expect meaningful improvement in jobs, credit or housing for months to come.
That's according to a survey released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). The group asked 43 top economists last month if they believe the battered U.S. economy has pulled out of the worst U.S. downturn since World War II. Those surveyed include economists from leading Wall Street firms and major corporations, as well as from highly respected universities and research firms.
Thirty-five respondents, or 81%, believe the recovery has begun. Only four, or 9%, believe the economy is still in a recession. The other four say they're uncertain.
Economists in the survey forecast that the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3% in the three months that ended in September, though the official reading of gross domestic product won't be out for weeks.
And all of the economists surveyed expect the recovery to be slow and painful, leaving many people and businesses feeling the effects of the downturn for years to come.
The only organization that can officially declare the beginning or the end of a recession is the National Bureau of Economic Research. But that group doesn't make any sort of declaration until months after the fact, in order to take into account final readings of various economic measures such as employment, income and industrial production. For example, the NBER didn't declare that the recent recession had begun in December 2007 until a full year after the fact. So Obama is doing his job. His policies are working after all huh?
Boooooo recession over. Booo Obama.
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| Oct 12 @ 5:43 PM |
Recession over, |
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SimplyImp
Posts: 1,051
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Actually, burns, most people, whether Republican or Dem, would be more than happy to see the end of the recession - period. 
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| Oct 12 @ 5:56 PM |
Recession over,
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SweetNapaGuy
Posts: 8,471
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SimplyImp, you have to understand American politics. For the Republicans, having the economy in a recession come late next year would be a good thing. They could pick up seats in Congress, as well at the state level. They also could gain some significant fundraising benefits.
Everyone's been saying that it'll take a couple more years for a full recovery, so no-one is seriously expecting the economy to magically repair itself. But if progress is being made, it's a good campaigning "bullet point" for the Democrats.
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| Oct 12 @ 6:47 PM |
Recession over, |
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arieann
Posts: 2,072
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I think the recession being over would be a good thing. The sooner, the better.
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| Oct 12 @ 7:06 PM |
Recession over,
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SweetNapaGuy
Posts: 8,471
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The recession may be over, but the recovery may take awhile...
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| Oct 12 @ 7:34 PM |
Recession over, |
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SimplyImp
Posts: 1,051
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Thanks, Napa. Like any politics - it's not about the results, but who gets the power
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| Oct 12 @ 9:00 PM |
Recession over,
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Jankia
Posts: 11,892
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Nope...not over yet.Your link... By the way, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters in which the Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, grows by less than 2%. The real GDP didnt grow more than 2% the last quarter.
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| Oct 12 @ 9:09 PM |
Recession over, |
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kattsmeow
Posts: 22,625
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 Um, I think they are so wrong.
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| Oct 12 @ 9:17 PM |
Recession over,
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SimplyImp
Posts: 1,051
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Why do you say that Katt? Just curious as to why you have that opinion 
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| Oct 12 @ 11:19 PM |
Recession over, |
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SensualGemini
Posts: 6,861
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...The "recession" was over several quarters ago... We are in a depression, as proven by negative GDP and until that changes to a positive, until perpetual employment is created, this appears to be the calm before the storm.
...By the inherent definition, neither a recession, nor a depression can be defined as beginning, or ending, until after the fact. Wind up crystal balls and a Federal Reserve pumping money into bonds, treasuries and even the stock market is giving a false warm fuzzy to the money changers.
...But, thanks for the optimism; almost as good as expecting the Easter bunny.
==========
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| Oct 13 @ 1:43 AM |
Recession over,
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kjac
Posts: 8,163
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Does anyone have the unemployment numbers for September?
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| Oct 13 @ 2:07 AM |
Recession over, |
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Nightowl001
Posts: 7,494
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Sorry to post from an opinion/analysis piece, Kjac, but I can't seem to find the official report the analysis refers to. Despite signs that the economy has started to recover, U.S. employers continued to cut workers.
In the latest employment report released this morning, the Labor Department said nonfarm payroll shrank by another 263,000 in September, pushing the monthly unemployment rate to 9.8%, the highest level since June 1983. September 2009 unemployment rate
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| Oct 13 @ 2:36 AM |
Recession over,
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kjac
Posts: 8,163
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Someone says the recession is over, but unemployment is rising. Which one do you guys think America will care about?
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| Oct 13 @ 2:54 AM |
Recession over, |
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Nightowl001
Posts: 7,494
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Oh, I agree, Kjac. I am sure the populace as a whole will be much more concerned about job losses than whether or not the recession is over according to "economic indicators." One problem with this is that the two are very different measures, so it is a little misleading to compare the two.
America has produced more in the 3 months ending in September than it did in the 3 months prior to that, so that the gross domestirc product numbers rose. That does not necessarily have anything to do with how many people were employed to do that.
There are also "seasonal adjustments" to take into consideration. How many thousands of camp counselors, cooks, maintenance workers, swimming instructors, construction workers, etc., are used to being laid off every year around mid to late September when the weather cools and the school year starts? On the GDP side of the ledger, how many crops were harvested and brought to market in July-September that, without being seasonally adjusted for, makes it look like there was a HUGE gain in agricultural products over the last three months compared to April-June?
Manufacturers and distributors don't lay people off the first slow week (or month)they have, so they wind up with large inventories before people hit the unemployment lines. Especially in a deep and moderately protracted economic downturn, they will be reluctant to replace workers until that inventory is not only gone, but unfilled orders have begun to accumulate; one reason re-employment numbers always lag behind GDP recovery in a recovery. I sometimes think their criteria of "two quarters" of this and that is too short a time frame to accurately reflect deeper economic indicators that herald long-term economic health, good or bad.
Ooops.. I forgot. Being a socialist, I obviously don't know crap about a market economy. 
[Edited on 10/13/2009 3:00 AM]
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| Oct 13 @ 4:48 AM |
Recession over,
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SensualGemini
Posts: 6,861
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Night: Ooops.. I forgot. Being a socialist, I obviously don't know crap about a market economy.
...After all this time of bantering, I would have hoped you learned something. Meantime, as a Socialist, market economy is essential to keeping that check in the mail.
...Nevertheless, you still "don't know crap" ... as follows.
==========
Night: America has produced more in the 3 months ending in September than it did in the 3 months prior to that, so that the gross domestirc product numbers rose. That does not necessarily have anything to do with how many people were employed to do that.
...We don't have the real GDP report for the 3rd quarter ending in Septemeber, while it was the 2nd quarter that was just released as the "third" estimate for same.
...GDP is always a quarter behind, while unemployment is reasonably current.
...The September GDP report was for the 2nd quarter of April, May and June and still in the negative zone, but dramatically helped by the Stimulus Bill pushing mass quantities of cash into the system and now the Federal Reserve is doing same with bond, treasury and stock purchases, which are predicted to show a 0 GDP for September.
...In real data, the real economy is not improving, but rather borrowed money is improving the bottom line and a false reading for the actual economy.
...The same thing happened with New Deals during Roosevelt, where as soon as the second New Deal ran out of money, the economy collapsed back to prior levels and it required a war to put America back to work.
...Corporate profits continue to drop, which also means less taxes collected. Home foreclosures are up, unemployment continues to rise with no jobs in sight and retail is about to take a considerable hit in the 4th quarter and 1st quarter of 2010. Obama is now considering extending unemployment benefits past the 92 weeks already in effect, which has been the only saving grace for the unemployed and the economy, but yes, still borrowed money to the national debt.
...The bottom line is that perpetual employment has to be created and I don't want to expand the present wars to do so.
...The only way to do this, is totally against this regime's mentality and that is to reduce taxes on capitalism, that will encourage expansion and employment, which will not happen overnight. No capitalist is going to venture without something locked in for long term, just as the US does for the foreign corporations.
...Raising taxes now, will utterly destroy this country, but that is what they are looking at to continue feeding the some 23 million government workers and some 40 million now on welfare... and yes, all the social programs, as well as the empty coffers of unemployment insurance that business pay into.
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| Oct 13 @ 11:04 AM |
Recession over, |
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Always_Striving
Posts: 8,794
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The recession isn't over in Washington state. I went to a party on Saturday mainly attended by Computer/ Software consultants and Aerospace Engineers and many say they were recently laid off, at least 1 secretary was cut from her job too.
But...... I been talking to people in the health care industry (various occupations) and NO ONE has been losing their jobs in that arena.
I think I can see, with all the talk, where all the jobs will be gravitating to.
A friend of mine who is a chemical engineer has now started up a business of his own with 3-4 employees which controls distribution monitoring of medication between doctors, patients and pharmacy's. He can't find work as a chemical engineer so, instead, he has improvised.
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| Oct 13 @ 11:18 AM |
Recession over,
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burnslikethesun
Posts: 13,027
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Um, I think they are so wrong. I almost agree. This one is at least. til the next. and there is always a next.
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| Oct 13 @ 11:26 AM |
Recession over, |
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lacyvsq
Posts: 6,161
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AS said:
But...... I been talking to people in the health care industry (various occupations) and NO ONE has been losing their jobs in that arena.
Perhaps the purchase of all those untested and unwarranted swine flu vaccinations at over a $Billion is to stimulate the medical system economy.
Truly, creation of a pandemic in this country is almost as good as waging war: There is possibility of casualties, thereby reducing the workforce, there is creation of jobs in caring for the sick, and there are huge profits for the big guys! In addition, it almost appears to be an act of God rather than an act of greed.
If this swine flu thing goes down well, the recession may very well be over.
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| Oct 13 @ 2:53 PM |
Recession over,
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eastham
Posts: 7,907
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Someone says the recession is over, but unemployment is rising. Which one do you guys think America will care about?
The problem is this...employment is a lagging indicator. What I think most of the economists are talking about are improvements in various leading indicators. According to the Conference Board, leading indicators posted gains in June, July and August. Still waiting on September's numbers, which are due out 10/22. This is good news, because up until April, we were looking at 20 months of solid declines. We've now had 5 months of gains in the leading indicators. Leading indicators.
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| Oct 13 @ 3:03 PM |
Recession over, |
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SensualGemini
Posts: 6,861
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AS: He can't find work as a chemical engineer so, instead, he has improvised.
...I like him already... improvise, instead of whining, instead of becoming another 'victim.'
========
...The need for health care is not going down, but I would anticipate caused government controls, either directly, or inadvertently on future medical provider salaries to offset the costs of adding insurance profits into national social health care.
...Later, after quality care has substantially dropped by salary freezes, when they realize they are obtaining the bottom of the barrel because of preferential treatment for education, they will wake up and provide government subsidized education to at least the medical field.
================
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